NC Dinos Home Win
NC holds a narrow edge at home in Changwon, backed by a deeper and healthier starting rotation and league-best baserunning. Samsung's catastrophic injury to Won Tae-in and Manning's release leaves them relying on unproven starters. NC's bullpen is more intact heading into this game. Samsung's lineup remains the great equalizer — any game is winnable with Diaz-Choi-Goo in the order — but on a lineup-neutral basis, NC's pitching edge matters more in exhibition play. EV +5.3%.
Strength Comparison
NC counters Samsung with home park advantage, a three-foreigner starting rotation, and league-best baserunning speed. Samsung's lineup featuring Diaz-Choi-Goo-Kim is arguably the strongest in KBO history, but the loss of Won Tae-in and Matt Manning has left a critical gap in their rotation. The bullpen was identified as Samsung's biggest weakness before the season even started.
This is a KBO pre-season exhibition game played in the final week of spring training at Changwon NC Park. With the regular season opening on March 28, both teams are using this game for final rotation checks and lineup tuning. Exhibition game dynamics mean unpredictable lineup choices, heavier use of prospects, and early substitutions — outcomes are secondary to preparation.
Key Factors
Samsung's second starter Matt Manning was released after suffering an elbow injury before throwing a single pitch. Ace Won Tae-in is undergoing treatment for an elbow flexor injury. Samsung's pre-season rotation plans have been dismantled.
NC has consistently performed well at home. Their miraculous 9-game winning streak to clinch the 2025 postseason began at home. NC pitchers are well-adapted to NC Park's mound and dimensions.
2025 wins leader Riley Thompson (17W, K/9 11.30) + new signee Curtis Taylor (5 scoreless IP in spring training, 151km/h) + Asia-quota Toda Natsuki. A historic three-foreigner rotation that compensates for the lack of proven Korean starters.
Diaz (50 HR, 158 RBI in 2025 — KBO all-time records), Goo Ja-wook (96 RBI), FA signing Choi Hyung-woo (24 HR, 86 RBI at age 42), Kim Young-woong (72 RBI). Five players with 70+ RBI, KBO's best lineup.
After missing 700+ days to injury, Koo Chang-mo returned and is confirmed for full rotation duty in 2026. Showed 3 scoreless innings in camp practice. His health is the pivotal variable in NC's pitching depth.
Oh Seung-hwan effectively retired, Kim Jae-yun struggled all of 2025, and key reliever Lee Ho-seong is out for the season after elbow surgery. Samsung's bullpen issues were never addressed in the offseason.
Led by Park Min-woo and Kim Ju-won, NC stole 186 bases in 2025, most in KBO. This creates pressure on Samsung pitchers and creates extra scoring chances. Expect aggressive baserunning even in this exhibition.
Samsung brings the most dangerous lineup in KBO but their pitching situation is in flux. Manager Park Jin-man will likely test unproven young starters. NC manager Lee Ho-jun will use this game to finalize the Thompson-Taylor-Toda rotation. NC's pitching stability versus Samsung's lineup power is the central storyline.
Risk Assessment
MediumPre-season games involve rotation changes, early substitutions, and prospect appearances that make predictions less reliable than regular season games.
With Won Tae-in injured and Manning gone, Samsung's 2nd and 3rd starter slots are filled by unproven youngsters. Lee Seung-hyun, Yang Chang-sub, or Jang Chan-hee could be tested.
Returning from a 700-day injury, Koo is on a strict innings limit. NC won't overextend him, but any setback could reshuffle the rotation plan.
When Diaz, Choi Hyung-woo, and Goo Ja-wook are all locked in simultaneously, no pitcher is safe. Samsung's lineup can produce multi-run innings from anywhere in the order.
If ace Ariel Huraldo is still at WBC with Panama, Samsung enters this game without their top starter as well, leveling the pitching matchup somewhat.
In the 2025 Wild Card round, NC beat Samsung 4-1 in Game 1 before losing Game 2 (3-0). While Samsung holds the all-time head-to-head advantage — earning the nickname 'NC's biggest nemesis' — the 2025 regular season saw NC gain the upper hand for the first time in years. This is a contested rivalry with no certainty either way.
H2H Insight
Relevance: 65- Samsung holds all-time head-to-head advantage since NC joined KBO, historically called 'NC's nemesis'
- 2025 regular season: NC flipped the script and held the advantage for the first time
- 2025 Wild Card Game 1: NC 4-1 Samsung (NC win); Game 2: NC 0-3 Samsung (Samsung win)
- Home and away records are nearly split between the two teams
- Remarkably, Samsung dominated NC even during Samsung's own dark years (2017-2022)
- Both teams play high-scoring, offensively aggressive baseball
Samsung is Korea's most decorated baseball franchise with 8 Korean Series titles. They are 12 years removed from their last championship (2014) and are mounting a serious title run in 2026. NC won the 2020 Korean Series and used a miracle run in 2025 to maintain their competitive momentum. The exhibition context aside, this matchup carries genuine rivalry energy.
News & Trends
Discovered during WBC preparation. Opening day rotation status uncertain. Won is the KBO's premier Korean-born starter.
Manning never threw a competitive pitch for Samsung. His departure leaves a gaping hole in the rotation.
A key bullpen piece gone before the season starts. Compounds Samsung's already shaky relief corps.
After 700+ days on the IL, Koo looked sharp in practice. Manager Lee confirms him for full 2026 rotation duty.
NC's new import starter blanked KIA for 5 innings using a two-seamer, sweeper, and changeup arsenal.
Choi had 24 HR and 86 RBI in 2025 at age 42. Joins Diaz-Goo lineup to form KBO's most dangerous cleanup core.
KBO's first 50-HR foreign player returns. Samsung locks in their franchise centerpiece at 4B.
Looking to rebound after 3.1 IP/3 ER vs Kiwoom. NC will monitor his workload carefully in the two-game series.
Rotation checks and lineup experiments progressing smoothly. Team cohesion appears solid.
Without Won and Manning, Samsung's rotation depth is limited. Bullpen overuse risk grows each game.
In 2025, Korean starters averaged only 3.8 IP per start. The three-foreigner rotation strategy is designed to fix this.
Goo-Diaz-Choi-Kim forms the cleanest 3-6 lineup in KBO. Despite high LHH content, Samsung hit .283 vs LHP in 2025 (1st in KBO).
K/9 of 11.30 and opponent OPS of .618 cemented his status as NC's ace. Re-signing stabilizes the rotation.
Thompson + Taylor + Toda Natsuki (Asia quota). NC bets on international arms to anchor a historically weak Korean rotation.
Miyaji underwent a pitching form overhaul and is experiencing shoulder discomfort. His spring timeline is unclear.
Career highs across the board. Will also see time at first base in 2026 for load management.
Became NC's best-ever shortstop after locking in as the leadoff hitter. Hitting, defense, and baserunning all elite.
Faster pace benefits NC's running game. Could disrupt Samsung heavy hitters who rely on deliberate routines.
Just 4 years into his career, Kim is a legitimate power threat at 3B. Batting average improvement remains his key goal.
Second only to Diaz in team RBI. His on-base skills and contact make him the ideal table-setter for Diaz.
186 SB, 64 CS. NC's speed creates pressure and scoring opportunities that substitute for raw power.
NC's import hitter rejoins the team after WBC. Adds power depth to a lineup that otherwise relies on contact and speed.
Overall, NC holds a marginal edge in this pre-season matchup due to home advantage, pitching depth (three-foreigner rotation plus Koo Chang-mo), and superior baserunning. Samsung's lineup is generationally powerful but their pitching situation is fragile. This is a close game with meaningful uncertainty given the exhibition format.
Value Bet
| Market | Odds | Implied | Predicted | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win (NC Dinos)VALUE | 1.95 | 51.3% | 54.0% | +0.1% |
| Away Win (Samsung Lions) | 1.95 | 51.3% | 46.0% | -0.1% |
| Total Runs Over 8.5VALUE | 1.90 | 52.6% | 55.0% | +0.0% |
Key Players
2025 wins leader 17W-7L, K/9 11.30, opp. OPS .618
NC's undisputed ace. High strikeout rate and elite groundball tendencies make him the ideal counter to Samsung's power lineup.
3 scoreless IP in spring training after 700+ day IL stint
NC's Korean ace returning to full health. His reintegration into the rotation is the biggest NC storyline of 2026.
Career-best 2025 season as NC's offensive anchor
NC captain and on-base machine. His ability to get on base and put pressure via stolen base threat is central to NC's offense.
Gold Glove-caliber 2025, locked in as leadoff hitter
NC's best-ever shortstop. Sets the tone at the top of the order. Threat to steal at any count disrupts Samsung pitchers.
Returning from WBC Canada duty, expected for March 20 game
NC's power bat in the middle of the lineup. Return adds much-needed run-producing depth to offset NC's speed-first approach.
5 scoreless IP vs KIA in spring training, 151km/h fastball
NC's new import starter. 198cm Canadian righty with a power arsenal. His effectiveness against Samsung's lineup is the key watch item.
2025: 50 HR, 158 RBI — both KBO all-time records for a foreign player
The most dangerous hitter in KBO. Can single-handedly change a game with one swing. NC pitchers must navigate him carefully every at-bat.
2025: 96 RBI as Samsung's 3-hole hitter
Diaz's chief accomplice in the lineup. Elite plate discipline and contact skills make him equally dangerous on-base or driving in runs.
2025: 24 HR, 86 RBI, wRC+ 157.6 at age 42. FA to Samsung in winter.
Legendary KBO veteran returning to Samsung after 10 years. His presence behind Diaz forces pitchers to make more mistakes to the No. 4 hitter.
Samsung's ace, currently at WBC with Panama — spring start status uncertain
Samsung's best pitcher. If still at WBC, Samsung enters Game 2 without either of their top two starters. A significant leveler for NC.
NC presents a deep starting pitching corps (Thompson/Taylor/Toda + Koo) and a high-pressure baserunning attack led by Park Min-woo and Kim Ju-won. Samsung counters with the most fearsome lineup in KBO history but is seriously undermanned in the rotation due to injuries. Whoever controls the pitching matchup controls this game.