Fulham poised to end drought against depleted Burnley

Burnley arrive at Craven Cottage nine points adrift of safety, with six senior players unavailable and the worst defensive record in the Premier League (58 goals conceded in 30 games). Scott Parker publicly confirmed the scale of his injury crisis. Fulham have won 4 of their last 5 home games and Wilson (9 goals) and Jimenez (8 goals) remain available to break their three-game scoring drought. Our model gives Fulham a 68.5% win probability versus the bookmaker-implied 64.5%, generating a 6% expected value at odds of 1.55.