Endrick vs Suspense-Crippled Celta — Lyon Advance at Groupama
Lyon controlled the first leg with 71.3% possession and 20 shots, only needing an 87th-minute Endrick goal to equalize despite their overwhelming superiority. Tonight, Celta must come to Lyon without their top scorer (Iglesias) and first-choice left-back (Mingueza). Endrick's five Europa League goals and the Groupama Stadium atmosphere make Lyon's win the most logical outcome. EV +0.155, edge +7.4pp — CallKing picks Lyon.
UEFA Europa League R16 Second Leg — Lyon vs Celta Vigo
The Groupama Stadium hosts the decisive second leg, level at 1-1 after the first leg in Vigo. Celta's leading striker Borja Iglesias is suspended following his red card in leg one — an elbow on Clinton Mata. Oscar Mingueza also serves a yellow card ban. Lyon at home, with Endrick in peak European form, are heavy favorites to advance.
Strength Comparison
Lyon dominate on attack and key player availability. Celta are crippled by the twin absences of Iglesias and Mingueza, with Ferran Jutgla also doubtful. Lyon's 71.3% possession and 6 shots on target in leg one already demonstrated their quality edge.
Key Absentees Analysis
Celta Vigo (Away):
- Borja Iglesias (suspended — red card in leg one) — team's top scorer and physical focal point
- Oscar Mingueza (yellow card accumulation) — first-choice left-back, Spain international level
- Ferran Jutgla (head injury doubt) — second attacking option
- Miguel Roman (injured, confirmed out)
Lyon (Home):
- Multiple absences: Kamara, Maitland-Niles, Fofana, Nuamah, Kluivert, Moreira, Sulc, Himbert all out
- BUT all key starters available: Endrick, Tolisso, Morton, Tessman, Yaremchuk all fit
Key Factors
Iglesias is Celta's physical anchor and top scorer. Without his hold-up play and presence, Celta have no way to pin Lyon's back line. Mingueza's absence also weakens the defense.
The 19-year-old Real Madrid loanee has 5 goals and 4 assists in Europe this season. His 87th-minute equalizer in leg one proved his big-match temperament. Celta's defense has no adequate answer.
Lyon had 71.3% possession, 20 shots, and 6 on target in the first leg — in Vigo. At the Groupama Stadium, they will be even more dominant.
The 37-year-old Aspas has 6 goal involvements in 11 EL appearances this season. With Iglesias gone, all of Celta's creativity runs through him. Lyon must nullify him.
Lyon are winless in their last 6 league games and were knocked out of the Coupe de France. But their Europa League form is on a different level entirely.
Without Iglesias, Giráldez will likely set up even deeper with a 5-4-1 shape. A well-organized block can frustrate Lyon if they lack creativity in the final third.
Endrick: The Loan Deal Explained
Real Madrid signed Endrick for €60M in summer 2024, then loaned him to Lyon in December 2025 for six months (€1M loan fee). The deal gives the 19-year-old Brazilian Europa League exposure ahead of the 2026 World Cup. At Lyon: 10 matches, 5 goals, 4 assists, average FotMob rating 7.35. His personal motivation for this fixture is sky-high — every EL performance is a direct audition for his Real Madrid future.
Risk Assessment
MediumDespite European excellence, Lyon have not won at the Groupama in their last two home games. The psychological pressure is real.
Even missing Iglesias and Mingueza, Celta's organizational quality and away resilience should not be underestimated.
Iago Aspas at 37 can still produce a moment of individual genius. If Lyon leave him even brief pockets of space, he can punish them.
If the tie remains level after 90 minutes, Lyon's squad depth and fresher legs give them the edge in extra time.
H2H Insight
Relevance: 45- Both teams have scored in all 4 recent meetings
- First-ever European meeting between these clubs
- Average 2.8 goals per game — both teams attack-minded
- Both clubs have extensive knockout stage experience
Value Bet Analysis
Lyon at 2.10 implies 47.6% probability. Given the personnel situation (Iglesias + Mingueza absent, Jutgla doubtful), Lyon's true win probability is closer to 55%. EV = (0.55 × 2.10) - 1 = 0.155. This is positive value — modest but consistent with a genuine edge over the bookmaker's line.
Value Bet
| Market | Odds | Implied | Predicted | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon WinVALUE | 2.10 | 47.6% | 55.0% | +7.4% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 26.0% | -4.8% |
| Celta Vigo Win | 3.50 | 28.6% | 19.0% | -9.6% |
| Both Teams to Score (BTTS Yes)VALUE | 2.05 | 48.8% | 52.0% | +3.2% |
| Lyon Over 1.5 GoalsVALUE | 2.30 | 43.5% | 52.0% | +8.5% |
News & Trends
Celta's top scorer and physical focal point is banned after his dismissal in the first leg. His suspension is the defining factor in this tie.
Oscar Mingueza serves a yellow card accumulation suspension, forcing Celta to reorganize their defensive shape.
Celta's second forward option Jutgla has a head injury from training, leaving Pablo Durán as the only available striker option.
Celta midfielder/defender Miguel Roman is fully ruled out of the second leg due to injury.
Manager Giráldez is expected to go even more defensive without Iglesias, deploying Pablo Durán as a lone striker in a 5-4-1 block.
Despite all absences, Celta have been impressively consistent in form. Their only recent defeat came against Real Madrid, which is understandable.
Even without Iglesias and Mingueza, Celta's away unbeaten run means they arrive in Lyon as a dangerous opponent.
Real Madrid loanee Endrick has been sensational in the Europa League. His 87th-minute equalizer in leg one proves his big-game ability.
Lyon have fallen well off the pace in Ligue 1 and lost to Lens in the Coupe de France. However, their EL performances have been on a completely different level.
Lyon's 15-point tally from the Europa League group stage placed them 2nd overall, confirming their genuine European quality.
Lyon's first leg dominance in Vigo was staggering. At home, these numbers should be even more extreme in their favor.
Expected XI: Greif; Hateboer, Mata, Niakhaté, Tagliafico; Morton, Tessman; Endrick, Tolisso, Abner; Yaremchuk.
Lyon's right-back Mata overlapped to create the 87th-minute equalizer. His attacking runs from deep remain a key weapon.
UEFA's removal of the away goals rule means a 1-1 draw in Lyon would trigger 30 minutes of extra time, then penalties if required.
Irfan Peljto of Bosnia is an experienced UEFA referee. Expected to manage the physical nature of this knockout fixture firmly.
Multiple Lyon players are unavailable, but all the starting-quality players (Endrick, Tolisso, Morton, Tessman, Yaremchuk) are fit.
The 37-year-old Aspas must single-handedly carry Celta's attacking burden with Iglesias absent. Lyon's central midfield must track him tightly.
Celta Vigo will have approximately 3,000 traveling supporters in Lyon. A psychological boost for the away team.
Endrick has openly discussed his desire to earn his place at Real Madrid. Every EL goal is a direct audition. His motivation is at its highest.
Paulo Fonseca's tactical system has been designed to generate possession dominance and sustained attacking pressure — exactly what this fixture calls for.
The winner faces potential QF matchups with elite clubs. The prize for victory in Lyon tonight is a spot in the top 8 of Europe's second competition.
Key Players
5G 4A in EL this season, 87' equalizer in leg one
Real Madrid loanee at 19 years old. The most dangerous player in this fixture. His five Europa League goals this season and personal motivation create the perfect conditions for a decisive performance.
Consistent hold-up play and aerial threat
The lone striker whose physical work rate and aerial presence creates space for Endrick and Tolisso to exploit.
Experienced midfield orchestrator throughout EL campaign
Lyon's creative engine in midfield. His range of passing and ability to unlock deep defensive blocks is essential against Celta's 5-4-1.
Assisted Endrick's equalizer in leg one
Overlapping right-back who is key to Lyon's wide play. His first leg assist demonstrated exactly why he is trusted to go forward in big moments.
6 EL goal involvements in 11 games
At 37, Aspas remains Celta's most dangerous player and sole creative force. He must carry the team's entire attacking burden with Iglesias suspended. If Lyon give him space, he will punish them.
Expected to start in place of Iglesias/Jutgla
The Swedish midfielder is likely to start on the wing or in an advanced role with Iglesias absent. Energy and pressing rather than clinical finishing.
Consistent defensive midfield contribution
Celta's defensive midfield anchor. His ability to disrupt Lyon's midfield creativity will be crucial to any Celta counter-plan.
Endrick and Yaremchuk give Lyon a complete attacking partnership against a Celta defense already stretched without Iglesias and Mingueza. Aspas alone cannot break Lyon's organized defensive block.